Oregon's chance at a Fiesta bid

I don't have a good feeling about this. The Oregon Ducks are ranked 7th in the BCS, behind Ohio State and ahead of Notre Dame, but the AP & USA Today polls have them at 8th, behind both of those two-loss schools. Notre Dame is a lock for the Fiesta Bowl, of course, given their history, glamour and weekly broadcast on NBC (and how the hell does one school rate such treatment? if there's any indication of the NCAA's corrupt relationship to money, this is it). Their opponent will either be Ohio State or Oregon, and I'm not really holding my breath that the right choice will be made.

Ohio State, of course, has the history. They are a long-time power and recent national champion. Of course, Oregon was denied its shot at the 2001 title by a BCS system that somehow put Nebraska ahead of them -- and then Nebraska got creamed in the title game while Oregon proved it should have been Miami's opponent. (Ohio State's victory, I still contend, was the gift of a bad official's call, not a legitimate title at all.) The Fiesta Bowl, like all other bowl committees, will look at two things: which team will bring the most fans and which team will draw the higher tv ratings.

I don't know if Oregon can challenge that argument. Will they travel better than OSU, as the saying goes? That one is probably a wash, although if travel costs are high enough, the shorter distance from Oregon (and California, where many Oregon grads live) may encourage more Duck fans. But a BCS bowl game will surely inspire Buckeye fans to pony up whatever the cost is -- not to mention escaping the Midwest in midwinter.

(Side note: Will more locals buy tickets for Oregon or Ohio State? It's not necessarily a deciding factor, given that we may be talking only a few thousand seats here, but the only sell-out for this bowl in recent years was when Oregon played in 2001. On that count, it appears the Ducks have a greater local/regional appeal.)

In terms of tv, which is undoubtedly the deciding factor, I think Ohio State holds the edge there. They are better known with the long history -- but maybe football fans are tired of them. Michigan fans might enjoy tuning in to see their hated rivals whupped on by Notre Dame, but perhaps Oregon has an appeal, too. They are a new face on the national scene, a program that has been growing in strength and producing terrific players. Several years ago, OSU tried to hire Mike Belotti away, and he chose to stay with Oregon. Maybe people want to see the fabled Irish against the nouveau Ducks, a team that was not supposed to be a BCS contender this year -- not even close -- and ends up in the national top 10. Maybe, like me, a lot of fans are simply tired of old teams like Ohio State who have been around forever and simply are just another boring powerhouse, like Oklahoma and Alabama.

Finally, of course, which team will give Notre Dame a better game? When Oregon played Colorado in the Fiesta four years ago, they blew them out of the water. Mike Belotti knows how to prepare his team for a big game. Ohio State has lost two games, and Oregon but the one -- to two-time defending champion Southern Cal. I know I'm a homer, but I honestly think the Ducks can stay with the Irish much more than the Buckeyes can. This is a team that has been under-appreciated all year, yet here they are, a Top 10 team. I know they can not only play with Notre Dame, they can beat them.

If they get the chance. And I'm not holding my breath on that.